Warren Buffett - Fools give you reasons, wise men never try

Key takeaways at the end

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We make no attempt to predict how security markets will behave; successfully forecasting short term stock price movements is something we think neither we nor anyone else can do. In the longer run, however, we feel that many of our major equity holdings are going to be worth considerably more money than we paid.

1978 Shareholder Letter

We have no idea – and never have had – whether the market is going to go up, down, or sideways in the near- or intermediate term future.

1986 Shareholder Letter

We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

1992 Shareholder Letter

We have never attempted to forecast what the stock market is going to do in the next month or the next year, and we are not trying to do that now. [...] Berkshire will someday have opportunities to deploy major amounts of cash in equity markets — we are confident of that. But, as the song goes, “Who knows where or when?” Meanwhile, if anyone starts explaining to you what is going on in the truly-manic portions of this “enchanted” market, you might remember still another line of song: “Fools give you reasons, wise men never try.”

1999 Shareholder Letter

Take a look again at the 44-year table [of Berkshire's performance]. In 75% of those years, the S&P stocks recorded a gain. I would guess that a roughly similar percentage of years will be positive in the next 44. But neither Charlie Munger, my partner in running Berkshire, nor I can predict the winning and losing years in advance. (In our usual opinionated view, we don’t think anyone else can either.) We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and, for that matter, probably well beyond – but [even] that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall.

2008 Shareholder Letter

Before reading [The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham], I had wandered around the investing landscape, devouring everything written on the subject. Much of what I read fascinated me: I tried my hand at charting and at using market indicia to predict stock movements. I sat in brokerage offices watching the tape roll by, and I listened to commentators. All of this was fun, but I couldn’t shake the feeling that I wasn’t getting anywhere.

2013 Shareholder Letter

Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater. But the combination of The American Tailwind, about which I wrote last year, and the compounding wonders described by Mr. Smith, will make equities the much better long-term choice for the individual who does not use borrowed money and who can control his or her emotions. Others? Beware!

2019 Shareholder Letter

* Bold emphasis added

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Key concepts and takeaways:

• Short-term market forecasts are poison: You should never make investment decisions based on short- or medium-term predictions of stock market movements. Think the next decision of FED around interest rates, data on payroll, inflation, or quarterly results. Never let these influence your long-term views on prospects of a company. They should not matter to you as you are focused on the long-term. In the short term, fear and greed can triumph the long-term fundamentals of a company and you should use these short-term fluctuations only to take advantage of the mispricing that might occur.

• Fools give you reasons, wise men never try: No one can predict what will happen to stock prices tomorrow. Don't listen to short-term market forecasts or even to explanations of what happened in the stock market yesterday. Both are of little value to what you are trying to achieve as a long-term investor. The world and the stock market are too complex to make a meaningful analysis of every short-term fluctuation. In my experience, even large, dedicated research teams repeatedly fail and you as an individual simply don't have the time and bandwidth to compete with them.